I intend to make these a few parts, I think it’s important to provide some content for this field, particularly as I actually dreamt about this overnight.
1. The best candidates don’t contest, the candidates that get their party nominations contest!
That may sound very basic to you, but it is what it is. No matter how qualified you or capable you or your favorite person is, if you don’t get a party to nominate you, you are only pasting posters. If you don’t win your primary or get in one way or the other, you are just ambitious. Your name will only show on the ballot box when your party says you are representing them.
The conjectures from this truth are many. First, it means politics is not primarily about getting the masses to like you, but primarily about getting the political elites to choose you. The real exam is not on election day, the real exam is winning the ticket, election day is where the papers are marked.
2. The best candidates don’t win elections, the election is really between the most prominent parties in the country or region.
Nationally, this is APC and PDP. Some states and regions have some other parties that have strong structures. Parties like APGA and AD. On a national scale, however, a goat from APC has more chances than Prof Osibajo on ANN. I mean an actual goat, not a figure of speech! If you don’t believe me, simply go back in time and listen to the voice of data. We are saying the same thing.
The implication of this is that your candidates’ political brilliance is their ability to clench the choicest tickets. Getting the right ticket is literally the equivalent of getting Walmart to shelve your product, that’s immediate scale. PDP and APC are monster National outlets. YPP, ANN, and co are mom and pop shops. They are good places to test your political mettle running for councilor or a little more, but not if you are serious. If you see anyone on those platforms today promising you that they can win the election, ask them – “Which election?”. The truth is that people are running for many different things and some people are running to add presidential aspirants to their CVs. Note, this is not a bad thing, just maybe not very transparent to their followers.
3. An unknown candidate that doesn’t campaign and operates from a party that sounds like PDP is more valuable than the popular Sowore on another mom and pop party.
You don’t have to take my word for it, listen to the voice of data. Who is Nicolas Felix beside Fela Durotoye? Who is he beside Sowore? Who is he beside Kingsley Moghalu? Yet all the three of them combined are licking his dust.
The implication is, if you are riding on a bicycle, don’t say you are going to London. Go where a bicycle can carrey (In Benin accent) you. Cut your journey according to your vehicle.
The political noise will soon start drowning other noises. I hope the information will be useful to guide your voting and your guiding others.