Dear Mr President Sir,
I hope this finds you well.
I write with some hesitation and some excitement. Hesitation, because I do not presume to know it all. Excitement, because moments like this—global uncertainty, shifting supply chains, rising prices—have a way of quietly opening doors for countries that are ready.
A disruption to the Strait of Hormuz would not be a small event. It would send oil and gas prices upward, tighten global supply, and force many countries to start looking around for alternatives.
For once, Nigeria might be one of the places they look to.
Now, that sentence alone should make us sit up a little.
1. The Opportunity (The Part That Makes One Smile)
If global supply tightens:
• Prices rise
• Buyers look for new suppliers
• Refining capacity becomes more valuable
And here we are:
• Producing crude
• Building refining capacity
• Sitting in a region that is under-supplied
It almost feels like one of those moments where, if we are careful, we might actually benefit from a global problem.
But as we know, in Nigeria, opportunity and complication are close relatives.
2. The Reality Check (The Part That Brings Us Back to Earth)
Even if we are exporting:
• Fuel prices at home will still rise
• Transport costs will increase
• Food prices will not remain polite
• Citizens will understandably ask questions
In short, while dollars may be coming in, pressure may also be building locally.
We have seen this film before. It is better to prepare the ending this time.
3. What We May Want to Pay Attention To
With humility, I suggest a few things that may help us make the most of the moment:
A. Keep the Oil Flowing
This may sound obvious, but in our context, it is strategic.
• Protect pipelines
• Reduce losses
• Keep production steady
Because high prices without volume is like owning a shop with no goods.
B. Let Refining Actually Refine
If we are now refining locally, this is the time to:
• Ensure consistency
• Avoid disruptions
• Deliver at scale
This is where we move from potential to relevance.
C. Prepare for Domestic Reactions
Even as we export more:
• Nigerians will feel the price increases
• Communication will matter
• Targeted support may be necessary
Because growth that people cannot feel quickly becomes difficult to defend.
D. Capture the Earnings Properly
This is where discipline becomes important.
• Ensure revenues are fully accounted for
• Reduce leakages
• Strengthen FX inflows
There is little comfort in high prices if the benefits do not land where they should.
E. Think Beyond the Moment
This is not just about today’s prices.
It is about:
• Building long-term supply relationships
• Positioning Nigeria as a reliable energy partner
• Becoming a regional hub, not just a temporary alternative
4. A Simple Thought
It seems to me that moments like this reward countries that are not only blessed, but also prepared.
Nigeria has been blessed for a long time.
Preparation is where we still have work to do.
5. Closing
I offer these thoughts not as conclusions, but as contributions. In a country as complex as ours, no one voice is sufficient, but every honest voice can add a little clarity.
If we handle this well, what begins as a global disruption could quietly become a national advantage.
And for once, it would be nice if we did not look back and say, “we almost had it.”
Thank you for your time and leadership.
Kind regards,
Adeolu Akinyemi
